No signs of NFL viewership decline, for now

HUNT VALLEY, Md. (TND) — The NFL is back, and proved it still has a stronghold on hundreds of millions of fans.

More than 121 million people tuned into opening weekend games, which is a 5% increase from last season. According to Nielsen ratings, the average viewership for all games hit 18.5 million — the best opening weekend turnout in six years and a 3% increase from last year.

And the games themselves weren’t snoozers; a record seven Week 1 games were won by three points or fewer. Five came down to a game-winning score in the final two minutes or went into overtime.

NBC broadcast the two most-watched games, with 24.5 million tuning into Tampa Bay’s 19-3 win over Dallas Sunday night and 21.3 million watching the Bills beat the Rams 31-10 Thursday night. The Seahawks’ 17-16 win over the Broncos became the most-watched Monday night game since 2009 with 19.8 million viewers across ABC, ESPN and ESPN2. The game also earned the fourth-biggest audience since ESPN took over “Monday Night Football” in 2006.

Fox had its most-viewed game during late Sunday afternoon with the Vikings victory over Green Bay at 18.5 million. Overall, Fox’s viewership went up 11% over last season. And CBS had its most-watched early game with the Steelers’ victory over the Bengals. Its doubleheader Sunday averaged 17 million, the network’s third-most watched Week 1 since 1998.

On Thursday night, the NFL will debut its Amazon Prime Video streaming service for the Chargers-Chiefs game. Amazon won the rights to exclusively broadcast “Thursday Night Football” games last March, and it’s the first time an NFL game will be locked behind it, complete with its own new theme music. It’s a gamble to see how the NFL switching from traditional TV to streaming will fare, as the league considers which tech company to give its NFL Sunday Ticket package to next year. Amazon Prime also partnered with DirecTV to air their games in more than 300,000 sports bars, restaurants, hotels and other venues.

Data from Nielsen ratings indicates there’s been a slightly downward trend in viewership from 2018 to 2021, but that’s likely attributed to newer digital viewing options versus cable. While streaming services like Amazon Prime hope their sports programming will become a major top broadcaster in the coming decade, television networks committed roughly $110 billion for rights to show NFL games for the next decade. The goal for the league is to rake in $25 billion annually by 2027, meeting Commissioner Roger Goodell’s wishes.

“If history teaches us anything, it’s that professional football, particularly, is going to suffer from overexposure. It’s on too often,” said Randy Roberts, a history professor at Purdue University who specializes in sports. “But it doesn’tPeople will watch it. It’s America’s game. It’s America’s sport. It’s impervious to ratings decline.”

Roberts said he doesn’t think the NFL faces the same fate as the MLB, where TV viewership declined by 12% between 2019 and 2021. Baseball isn’t alone; the 2022 NBA Finals saw viewership decrease by 18% from 2019, a sign of the league’s gradual decline in ratings. Regular-season games in the NHL were down 23% compared to last year. Not to mention the decline of general programming and the NFL’s dominance over it — in 2021, NFL games made up 48 of the top 50 and 91 of the top 100 most-watched telecasts. Earlier last year, “Sports Business Journal” reported out of the 25 most-watched telecasts so far that year, the only other programming able to edge its way in other than NFL games was President Joe Biden’s inauguration (No. 6) and an episode of CBS’s “The Equalizer” (No. 24), which aired immediately after the Super Bowl. As “Insider” noted, “When it comes to putting up ratings, the NFL can no longer be compared to other sports, or really any other sort of programming in general. The league is in a league of its own.”

The hold the NFL has on Americans seems to stand the test of time, and many a scandal.

A number of players have been caught up in accusations or charges: Browns’ Deshaun Watson, suspended and fined on accusations of sexual misconduct; Bills’ rookie punter Matt Araiza, released on accusations of gang rape (although the team reportedly knew of the allegations prior to bringing him on); former Raiders first-round pick Henry Ruggs, charged with four felonies including D.U.I. resulting in death; and Saints running back Alvin Kamara, going on trial later this month on charges he punched a man eight times at a nightclub.

Coaches and team owners aren’t exempt, either: Ex-Chiefs coach Britt Read charged with D.W.I. causing serious physical injury; Commanders owner Dan Snyder, under ongoing investigation for sexual harassment and workplace misconduct; Dolphins owner Stephen Ross fined and suspended for violating NFL tampering policies; and the entire league, along with the Broncos, Dolphins and Giants being sued by former Dolphins head coach Brian Flores who alleges racist hiring practices and racial discrimination.

And those are just the scandals in recent years; the league has seen many controversies in its history. They don’t seem to have much bearing on viewership. Ratings rebounded quickly after the kneeling controversy in 2016, which caused bad press and criticism from the president. Roberts said if the NFL hasn’t re-gained its viewers who decided not to watch games because of the kneeling drama, “football has discovered another demographic to choose from, because the numbers are back from then.”

Some speculate health concerns may weaken the NFL’s popularity, with fewer and fewer children playing tackle football. Data from 2018 found there was a 48% decline in kids over the age of 6 years old participating in tackle football, 5.16 million in 2018 versus 8.4 million in 2006. A more recent study from Ohio State University found 50% of Americans think tackle football is inappropriate for kids, with parents citing research showing the number of brain injuries and concussions in the sport. The league has shifted to encourage flag football for young kids and introduced “Guardian Caps,” soft-shell helmet covers made to reduce impact intensity during training. The NFL said the average number of concussions among offensive linemen, defensive linemen, tight ends and linebackers during training camp dropped 50%.

Potentially to the players’ detriment, Roberts said the violence associated with football, along with all contact sports, draws viewers in. He cited the NFL’s rule change in 2018, which prohibited players from landing on the quarterback with their full body weight. The league changed those rules again after pushback from viewers, who criticized the number of penalties being called.

“You watch a quarterback throw a pass to a receiver and a cornerback or safety coming over to disrupt that pass — that’s a collision that people want to see,” Roberts said. “They don’t necessarily want to see the artistry of the sport, to a certain degree. That threat of violence draws people to a football game. It’s the threat of violence or a knockout that draws people to boxing, not the exhibition of the sport.

“That has problems. What people want can be dangerous.”

Some also raise an alarm at the median age of an NFL game viewer, saying the sport could have an aging fanbase. According to sports reporter John Ourand, the median age of the viewer of Amazon’s preseason game was 51 years old. In 2019, the median age of Super Bowl viewers was 47.7, and in 2020, 49.1. This is likely another reason the league is trying to pivot to streaming providers and leverage social and digital media, to reach Gen Z and millennials who are shifting away from traditional TV.

But it seems all the scandals, digital competition and future health concerns don’t show signs of turning viewers away from America’s game. No matter where you live, your team can win the Super Bowl. The league’s salary cap and revenue-sharing guarantees all teams have enough money to build a quality team. According to an Ipsos poll, 51% of American adults said they’re fans of professional football. In 2007, the same percentage of Americans said they were a fan. There’s no political divide, either — 51% of Democrats, 50% of Republicans and 55% of independents said they’re fans of the NFL.

Roberts said he doesn’t think this will change any time soon.

“Historically, culturally, football has been our game.”

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